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Economy: Temporary shocks, sound fundamentals - By Inisght Research

  • By: Insight Securities (Private) Limited

  • - Published: Monday, 12 May 2025
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<p></p><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">Domestic fertilizer industry is experiencing a decline in offtake since last few months, with urea sales falling by ~54% YoY in 1QCY25. The drop is largely attributed to weak agronomics caused by government&rsquo;s decision to abolish support prices for wheat, which has severely dented farmer&rsquo;s pocket. As a result, industry&rsquo;s inventory levels have surged, reaching a four-year high. A similar trend was observed during 2016&ndash;2017, when urea sales dropped and inventory level reached record highs. At that time, poor farm economics were driven by several factors, including lower crop yields, weak commodity prices, uncertainty around urea pricing, crop damage from flooding, and increased fertilizer production amid improved gas av...

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