Pakistan Economy: Dec-24 CPI expected at 4% YoY, a 6.5-yr low – By JS Research

<p></p><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">Ongoing sharp disinflation trend is expected to persist, with Dec-2024 CPI likely to fall to 4.0% (lowest since Apr-2018 owing to a high base affect), and remain flattish MoM. This would take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3%, down from 1HFY24 average of 28.8%.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">Food inflation, which exceeded 27% in the previous year, is anticipated to increase by +0.03% YoY in Dec-2024, while a -23bp MoM reading is likely. Core inflation is expected to clock in at 10.8% in Dec-2024, with a MoM uptick of 80bp.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">Our base case estimates for FY25E take average CPI to 6.5%, whil...